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Why we’re polls apart
• I KNOW Islington’s Lib Dems need to whistle loudly to keep their spirits up but when they use opinion poll data then they need to read the small print before coming to any conclusions (Poll points the way, October 10).
YouGov carried out a survey of people in a variety of marginal constituencies – Labour/Tory, Tory/Lib Dem and Lib Dem/Labour. They then broke the data down to the different types of marginals. The average of all 14 Lib Dem/ Labour marginals showed a swing of 3 per cent from Labour to Lib Dem and 10.5 per cent from Labour to Tory.
Applying this average to all the marginals shows Labour holding five, the Tories winning five and the Lib Dems winning four – yes, including Islington South but this was based on the average as the sample size in each constituency was too small and the margin of error too great.
YouGov also found strong support for many incumbent MPs and that the Tories were benefiting from people switching from the Lib Dems.
So do we have any polls that really would give us an idea of voting intentions in Islington South? Yes, in the London elections in May 24,417 electors voted here. The Mayoral election and the North East constituency results may have been influenced by the particular candidates but in the London (top-up) members poll people were asked to vote by party alone. Labour received 7,838 votes (32.1 per cent), the Tories 5,453 (22.3 per cent), the Lib Dems 3,846 (15.8 per cent), the Greens 3,399 (13.9 per cent) and the rest of the votes were shared among 10 other parties with none getting more than 5 per cent. This would give Labour a majority over the Tories of 2,385.
When we look at the overall Islington result the Greens (who are stronger in Islington North) overtake the Lib Dems and it is not impossible that 2010’s local election could produce a council with Tory, Labour and Green councillors but no Lib Dems.
Finally, I note that the latest national poll from YouGov shows Labour up 3 per cent and the Lib Dems down to their lowest rating since Nick Clegg became leader.
Cllr Barry Edwards
Labour, Holloway ward |
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