Power sharing exposes the Liberal Democrats to a ‘double whammy’

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Published: 20 May, 2010

Lib Dem activists might put up with expenditure reductions seen as inevitable by their own government
but be less enthusiastic for Tory policies cutting back the public sector on principle, says John Mills

IT is a strange paradox that just as the Liberal Democrat-Conservative alliance got voted out of office in Camden on May 6, to be replaced by a majority Labour administration, nationally the situation has been almost exactly reversed.

The incumbent Labour government has been supplanted by a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition, albeit with the Conservatives as the larger party, whereas from 2006 to 2010 it was the Lib Dems who had more councillors than any other party in Camden.
Are there any pointers for the future which can be discerned from these events?
Perhaps the best starting point is to ask why Labour lost in Camden in 2006.

Again there is a strange paradox. After quite a long period when Camden policies were heavily criticised by many people, by 2006 the council was rated one of the best – if not the best – run council in the entire country.
Why, then, did Labour lose the election that year?
Partly the Iraq War. Partly other national issues, particularly lack of support by the Labour government for Camden’s housing policies.

Partly boredom with a Labour administration which had lasted since 1971. Partly, no doubt, local issues which had alienated floating voters.
Now, however, Camden has swung heavily back to Labour despite there still being a Labour government in power up to the date when the 2010 election was held.

This could possibly be a portent for what may happen to the Lib Dems in the future. The lesson to be learnt, it seems, is that if most Lib Dem activists and voters have broadly left-of-centre views, it does the Lib Dem Party no good to team up with Conservatives.
As long as Lib Dems are not in power it is relatively easy for them to attract support and votes by criticising incumbent administrations and promising to do better.  Sharing power, however, especially with Conservatives, is a different matter.
It then exposes them to a double whammy.

On the one hand Lib Dems get forced into supporting an ideological approach with which neither they nor many of their supporters feel at all comfortable. On the other hand, faced with the reality of hard choices with which any party in power has to cope, there is plenty of scope for alienating other people as a result of unpopular, even if necessary, policies being pursued.

This looks ominously likely to happen to the Lib Dems in the current national coalition, despite the current euphoria with which it has been initially received. Lib Dems might be prepared, however reluctantly, to put up with expenditure reductions seen as inevitable by their own government, but they are likely to be much less enthusiastic about Tory policies for cutting back on the public sector on principle, including such targets as child tax credits, winter fuel allowances, children’s centres, teachers and the police.

There are substantial and deep-rooted differences in approach to Britain’s membership of the European Union and its budgetary and regulatory implications. The Lib Dems are unlikely to get anything like what they really want on changes to the voting system.

The implications of the coalition government may therefore be just the opposite to what the Lib  Dems hope will be the case. Instead of seeing their party consolidating its position as a serious party of government, it may find that its experience as a junior partner to the Conservatives leaves many of its core supporters disillusioned at the same time as less committed Lib Dem voters drift away.
If, during the next few years, the Labour Party can revive itself it should not be at all difficult for it to become the natural home for most of these foot-loose Lib Dem voters.

The evidence from the 2010 election is that there is no natural majority in the country for Conservative policies. As party loyalties decline and voting intentions splinter, there is a large centre-left block of votes looking for a home.
The big challenge for the Labour Party is to capture this support on a big enough scale to make it the dominant party in the parliament now likely to be voted into place in 2015.
The evidence from recent voting in Camden suggests that this may well be an achievable objective.

• John Mills is chairman of JML, the online and TV shopping group, and a former Labour Camden councillor