LANDIN'S LINE: Holborn and St Pancras may be closer than you think

LANDIN'S LINE.

POLITICS. POSTED BY CONRAD LANDIN.

Having shot to fame from 41% of people identifying him as Dragons' Den's Peter Jones in February, you can see why Lib Dem activists are filled with excitement about Nick Clegg.

With polls showing a surge in support for the party, newspapers start to look for how this would shape the House of Commons. Ironically, although the Clegg bounce has been at Labour's expense as much as the Tories, if the swing was broadly the same across the country, Labour could easily end up the largest party in a hung parliament.

Such a swing would, according to polling website UK Polling Report, hand Hampstead and Kilburn to Lib Dem Ed Fordham. However, more in-depth research over the past year suggests that the swing is unlikely to be completely uniform, and that constituency could easily be an exception, never mind the fact that polling has been so volatile; any of the three parties could be in the lead votes-wise nationally come election day.

One national poll went as far as to suggest that Jo Shaw might snatch Holborn and St Pancras for Clegg. However, given the local popularity of the incumbent, this seems less likely. It is also worth noting that the Lib Dems fare poorly in Highgate and Gospel Oak wards, which have been added to the constituency, while the Tories poll better than average.

I've always thought it a shame we don't have more local opinion polling, although such would be of little use unless carried out properly by a recognised company, who charge fees only justifiable for a national circulation. But that's not to say the parties don't have a go – that's partially what canvassing about after all. While all parties prioritise their battlegrounds, we know little more about the likely result here in Camden, except that Holborn and St Pancras could be closer than we might think.

3.06PM April 21, 2010

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LANDIN'S LINE is written by A-Level student CONRAD LANDIN during the General Election campaign. He is a former councillor on Camden's Youth Council and is the vice-chairman of the Labour Party's Highgate branch.